extrapolation of capture probabilities

[garciap]

Hi, again,

I search the forum and elsewhere how to do the thing I want, but I didn't find the answer. As a default when running any kind of closed capture analysis MARK gives you the per-session probability of capture, and the same for CAPTURE insert in MARK (giving mean per session capture probabilities). However, I want to get the probability of capture for the overall survey (= for all the sessions carried out), not in a per session basis. I think this could be done by extrapolating the per session probablity to the complete trapping period.
Does anyone how to do that? Maybe it is an easy equation but I don't find it

Pablo

[cooch]

Hi, again,

I search the forum and elsewhere how to do the thing I want, but I didn't find the answer. As a default when running any kind of closed capture analysis MARK gives you the per-session probability of capture, and the same for CAPTURE insert in MARK (giving mean per session capture probabilities). However, I want to get the probability of capture for the overall survey (= for all the sessions carried out), not in a per session basis. I think this could be done by extrapolating the per session probablity to the complete trapping period.
Does anyone how to do that? Maybe it is an easy equation but I don't find it

Pablo

Model average to generate 'best' estimate of per occasion encounter probability, with associated SE and covariances. Overall probability of capture is a function of the product of these per-period estimates. To generate associated SE, use the Delta method (Appendix B) - you need the individual SE and covariances for the calculations.

[geoffwah]

See the following papers:
McArdle (1990). When are rare species not there?. Oikos 57 (1990), pp. 276–277;
Kery, M. (2002). Inferring the Absence of a Species: A Case Study of Snakes The Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 66, No. 2 (Apr., 2002), pp. 330-338, and;
Kery et al. (2006). How biased are estimates of extinction probability in revisitation studies? Journal of Ecology 94, 980–986