Hi all,

I'd be really grateful for some advice on a piece of analysis I've been working on.

I have been working on quite a complex multistate model for seabird data with the following set up:

7 events (three locations, two breeding states for each location)

13 states (same as states but with a trap-aware and trap-unaware version of each equivalent event)

3 groups

7 occasions

0 individuals covariates

As my data has trap-dependence, I am using the Pradel & Sanz-Aguilar approach to deal with this. I have three transition matrices: survival, dispersal and detection (trap-aware/unaware process). My event probability matrix is not active as it is synonymous with the detection matrix, so I have used i as the GEMACO syntax to set this.

I have previously run versions of this model, only obtaining estimates of survival and dispersal for the trap aware birds, by using the GEMACO syntax to specify only the trap-aware states. These models have run fine and seem to converge and give sensible results. However, I have realised that it is preferable to generate survival and dispersal estimates for all birds, not just those in the trap-aware states, so have rerun exactly the same models, but these are failing. The model runs fine with the amended GEMACO syntax for survival, but fails when I try and amend the dispersal syntax. For example:

where:

1 - non breeder at site one (trap-aware)

2 - non-breeder at site one (trap-unaware)

3 - non breeder at site two (trap-aware)

4 - non-breeder at site two (trap-unaware)

5 - non breeder at site three (trap-aware)

6 - non-breeder at site three (trap-unaware)

7 - breeder at site one (trap-aware)

8 - breeder at site one (trap-unaware)

9 - breeder at site two (trap-aware)

10 - breeder at site two (trap-unaware)

11 - breeder at site three (trap-aware)

12 - breeder at site three (trap-unaware)

and where:

the first set of [] specifies the probability to remain a non-breeder regardless of location, the second set of [] specifies the probability of a non-breeder becoming a non-breeder at any of the other locations; and the third, fourth and fifth set of [] specify the probability of a current breeder becoming a breeder at either of the other two locations. Age classes are used so that the probability of a non-breeder younger than a set age becoming a breeder can be set to zero using IMVF.

GEMACO syntax for dispersal of only trap-birds that runs:

[f(1 3 5).to(1 3 5)]+[f(1, 3, 5).[young+ad2].to(7, 9, 11)]+[f(7).[young+ad2].to(7, 9 11)[f(9 10).[young+ad2].to(9 10, 7 8 11 12)]+[f(11 12).[young+ad2].t(11 12, 7 8 9 10)]

GEMACO syntax for dispersal of both trap-aware and -unaware birds that fails:

[f(1 2 3 4 5 6).to(1 2 3 4 5 6)]+[f(1 2, 3 4, 5 6).[young+ad2].to(7 8, 9 10, 11 12)]+

[f(7 8).[young+ad2].to(7 8, 9 10 11 12)+[f(9 10).[young+ad2].to(9 10, 7 8 11 12)]+

[f(11 12).[young+ad2].t(11 12, 7 8 9 10)]

When the second version of the model runs it fails very quickly, I receive warnings that the first 10 histories are incompatible with the model with each run (model set to run 5 times with random initial values), as well as the following errors at the end of the overall run: "Error using matlab.graphics.axis.Axes/set Value must be a vector of type single or double whose values increase" and errors in "barV6", "bar", "hist", "menumuse>Run_Callback", "gui_mainfcn" and "matlab.graphics.internal.figfile.FigFile".

I'd be grateful for any insight or advice regarding these issues, and am happy to provide more information if needed.

Many thanks in advance,

Jennifer