Page 1 of 1

Contraints on first and last p in POPAN models

PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:24 pm
by stshroye
I know that in fully time-dependent POPAN models, the first and last p need to be constrained in order for the superpopulation estimates to be valid. Schwarz and Arnason (1996) suggest fixing p(1) = p(k) = 1. However, is there any reason why they should not be fixed to something more informative? For example, what if there is evidence from CJS model {phi(.) p(t)} that the last p is much < 1?