Hi All,

What I am asking may be beyond the realms of mark-recapture, but I couldn't find a similar question and I haven't succeeded in finding alternative options yet. At present, transitions in a multi-state model are generally based on where an individual is now (stratum) and where it is going (tostratum). What I would like to expand is where an individual was previously, and in this way estimate transitions that are more individual-specific, so for example lets say we have 10 strings, as per below, which represent two areas, and the transitions are summer-winter-summer

ABA

ABA

ABA

ABA

ABB

BBB

BBB

BBB

BBB

BBB

The estimate transitions for summer are a probability of 1 of stratum:tostratum A->B and also for B->B. For the winter transitions, they are 0.4 of stratum:tostratum B->A and 0.6 for B->B. But as you can see, there is more at play here. The residents (B) have a probability of 1 of remaining in B, whereas the migrants (came from A) have a 0.8 probability of going back to A, and a 0.2 of remaining in B. Hence the transitions depend on the time step prior to stratum:tostratum. Is there a way of bringing these dynamics into the transition models (I have 6 states and 10 years, thus 20 time steps) because in my system there is large variation in survival and resighting probabilities among states and hence why I would like to do this in a mark-recapture framework).

many thanks for your time in considering my question.