Study yearly recruitment in MSORD framework

[plelong]

Hi everyone,

I’m currently working on a dataset of juvenile green turtle in-water CMR from 2013 to 2023 (with a gap in in 2020 and 2021, and scarce sampling in 2022). The dataset has a Robust Design pattern with secondary occasions occurring between april and june. Turtles are classified in size-classes at capture (small, medium and large).
I was not initially expected temporary emigration in the dataset, but only permanent emigration in larger individuals. Nonetheless, a hurricane destroyed seagrass beds in 2017 (several months after the 2017 primary occasion).
I want thus to check if the hurricane induced temporary and/or permanent emigration in subsequent years. Additionally, I’m interested in the yearly abundance and yearly recruitment of new turtles in the foraging ground.

Considering (1) dataset characteristics, (2) importance to account for size-classes for permanent emigration (large turtles tend to emigrate definitively from juvenile foraging grounds), (3) possible presence of temporary emigration, and (4) the impossibility to assume that the population is closed within primary occasions, I should use a Multi-State Open Robust Design model.

My questions are :

Is there a possibility with the MSORD to estimate yearly number of new individuals settling between primary occasions ? If not, should I use another model in parallel of my MSORD to obtain recruitment estimates (such as a Multi-State Jolly-Seber model) ?

Thanks by advance for your help !

Pierre