Hello,

My questions concerns confounding in an MSORD with transient and resident survival.

My aim is to get an msord as time varying as possible to obtain an estimate of sample variance.

I know the final Psi should be constrained to the second-to-last so that all the S can be estimated.

However I'd like to know if Psi needs to be further constrained in a model with 2 classes of survival?

In this model;

a. MSORD:Two states, nest and skip.

a. S: 2 ageclass survival (transients & residents), time-varying.

b. Psi: time-varying 'nest to skip' and time-varying 'skip to nest', with the final Psi constrained to the second last.

c. p, pent & phi probability of zero in the skipped state.

d. p: time*session

e. pent: time*session

f. Phi: time since arrival i.e. Time-Cohort

This model has 3 beta singularities which result in real parameters being estimated at or close to 1 and with SE=0 (i.e. 3rd last transient S, last transient S and last resident S).

I have cloned their profile likelihood CIs but as this hasn't improved their estimates I think they are not being estimated correctly at the boundary.

Any help would be greatly appreciated,