Occupancy models hit the big time

[dhewitt]

As if they hadn't already... congratulations to Craig, Gary, and the rest of the authors:

DOI: 10.1126/science.1163428
Science 10 October 2008:
Vol. 322. no. 5899, pp. 261 - 264

Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA
Craig Moritz, James L. Patton, Chris J. Conroy, Juan L. Parra, Gary C. White, Steven R. Beissinger

We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early–20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (~500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed ~3°C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.